Metaphor: The Sorcerer's Apprentice
In 2001, the crew members were able to "pull the plug" on HAL.
The sorcerer's apprentice was saved by the sorcerer.
€ There is no sorcerer waiting in the wings to rescue us.
+ Can do does not always imply should do.
Limits on Our Predictive Abilities
I. Technology Itself
Predictions of future technology are frequently colored by the
then-current "hot topic."
Examples:
1930s‹an autogyro in every garage 1950s‹nuclear-powered cars and
planes
€ It is almost impossible to imagine technologies that are fundamentally
different from those which are known.
Example: Predicting the pocket radio in the 1930s.
€ Technology not only meets society's needs, but may create needs, as well.
Example: In the early 1950s, it was commonly supposed that fewer than
ten computers would satisfy all of America's computing needs.
II. Technology and Society
€ In the social sciences we are faced with systems that are as least as
complex as the weather, and far less well understood.
We simply have no good models for large-scale social, political, or
economic systems.
€ There is a very wide margin for error in any prediction.
But we'll try anyway.
Increased Power
€ Moore's Law: the power of computer hardware has approximately doubled
each year for the past two decades.
€ As one technology shows signs of maturity and slowing in its rate of
increase of power, a new technology has supplanted it.
€ We should see increasingly intelligent expert systems functioning as
assistants to doctors, scientists, lawyers, and the like.
Increased Reliance
€ The results of a program are only as good as the data entered
Example: Government and military policies during the Vietnam war were
facilitated by computer simulations.
€ It is almost impossible to guarantee the reliability of very large
systems.
Example: The Strategic Defense Initiative will require programs of
perhaps 10 million total lines of code, larger by far than any ever
written.
Can such a large program to function correctly the first time it is
ever used, without ever having a full-scale operational test?
Increased Access to Electronic Information
€ Use of computers to access information stored "on-line," such as
CompuServe and GEnie.
To use these, one needs a computer and a modem (for
modulator-demodulator).
€ Minitel has provided 1.1 million French telephone subscribers access to
4500 information services since 1978.
€ Quick and easy access to information will probably benefit the
economically and educationally privileged.
€ Avoid the assumption "If it isn't online, it doesn't exist, and if it is,
it must be correct."
Case Study: The Electronic Sweatshop
€ There will still be a need for people to enter massive quantities into
computers.
€ What we have seen is bad working conditions in a perfect physical
environment.
Example: A typical data-entry or retrieval shop
The workers are engaged in a tedious and monotonous task, isolated from
their co-workers while using their machines.
€ The machine itself monitors their performance.
Workers report high levels of stress, along with numerous health
problems.
Education
€ The prospects of the computer in education seem bright.
Example: a geology program can provide an understanding of plate
tectonics by compressing millions of years into minutes, showing the
drift and collision of continents.
Example: a world wide web browser or a hypertext program about
literature allows students to:
Read a Shakespeare sonnet
Read a commentary on the sonnet
See a picture of a reconstruction of the Globe theatre
Browse through the historical events of the time
Listen to music written by one of Shakespeare's contemporaries
Add notes and connections between materials.
Increased Centralization of Information
€ Much of the computer power available to us is distributed around the
globe, but is increasingly available.
Case Study: Effects on Privacy
€ The National Crime Information Center (NCIC) contains about 20 million
records on wanted or missing people, stolen property, and criminal
histories. Over 64,000 federal, state, and local agencies use NCIC at the
rate of 750,000 inquiries per day.
We must be aware of the potential for misuse.
Example: The Nixon administration coerced the Internal Revenue Service
into providing tax information on individuals on the administration's
"Enemies List".
Example: In a recent case, the FBI attempted to force a university
library to divulge the names of patrons who had checked out technical
material, which it would then match against a list of foreign students.
€ There is a temptation to believe that if information is in a computerized
record, it must be true.
€ We must make sure that there are safeguards against misuse and
inaccuracy.
The Freedom of Information and Fair Credit Reporting Acts allow us to
inspect and sometimes correct information in our files, but just
finding where we are represented is often difficult.
With increased reliance on electronic information should also come easy
access to our personal information.
Computer Crime
€ A computer and the data it stores are vulnerable to physical assault.
Physical: A magnetic tape or disk with irreplaceable information stored
on it can be rendered useless by as simple a means as passing a small
magnet near it.
Software: Newspapers in recent decades have abounded with stories of
"hackers" gaining access to computers.
In many cases, these unauthorized intruders do little more than browse
through the computer's files and leave a message behind.
€ Intent to do no harm, however, is often not enough to prevent harm.
Example: The Internet worm. Intended to grow slowly, a programming
error caused the virus to multiply explosively, clogging the systems of
hundreds of computers from coast to coast, and bringing them to a
virtual standstill.
€ A bank stands to lose a great deal more to a hacker or a
criminally-designed program than from a holdup.
€ We are likely to see increasing incidents of techno-terrorism, assaults
on computer systems for political reasons.
Example: Israeli computer scientists recently discovered and removed a
virus which would have erased the files and shut down a large number of
government systems.
Emergent Effects
€ By definition, these are unpredictable‹we have no way whatsoever of
predicting some directions research may lead.
€ We can never know exactly what the future can bring. All we can do is
prepare for it by being as knowledgeable as we can.
The Zero-th Law of Futurology:
One thing is clear‹the future will not be like the present.
It's up to you. Good luck.